Nine generations do not produce enough children to preserve their current population, on the contrary, is true in 104 countries where high fertility rates increase population growth, according to a new scientific study.
The overall rate of unemployment (TFR), a summary measure that describes the average number of women during a woman's life, has declined since 1950. In 2017, the lowest TFR was in Cyprus where an average woman would give birth to one child throughout her life, unlike the highest in Niger where a woman would give birth to seven children.
In addition to Niger, Mali, Chad and South Sudan were 104 nations with fertility rates exceeding two births per woman compared to 91 countries, including Singapore, Spain, Portugal, Norway and South Korea, and Cyprus, lower than two.
"These statistics are both" baby boom "and" baby pill "for some of the peoples of some countries," says Christopher Murray, director of the Washington Institute for Health and Evaluation Research (IHME). "Lower fertility rates reflect only the availability and availability of reproductive health care, but also many women who want to delay or give birth and have more opportunities for education and employment."
Findings are included in the annual Global Disease Burden of Disease (GBD) study, involving 3,766 partners from 146 countries and territories. This year's survey includes over 38 billion out of 359 illnesses and injuries as well as 84 risk factors in 195 countries and regions.
This GBD study version, released today in the international medical journal Lancet, is the first time that research has produced its own population and fertility estimates. The world's population grew by 197 percent from 1950, from 2.6 billion to 7.6 billion in 2017.
"We know this is the first study that offers open and recurrent estimates of population and fertility that can be used to report on decision-making and monitor national economic developments," Murray said. "Whilst full fertility rates are declining, the world's population will continue to grow due to the decline in deaths and the pace of population in recent decades."
Between 2007 and 2017, the world's population has grown annually by 87.2 million people, compared to 81.5 million annually between 1997 and 2007. In 1950, high income countries accounted for 24% of the world's population, but in 2017 the share of these populations was 14%.
Of the countries whose population grew by more than 2% a year in 2010-2017, 33 were in sub-Saharan Africa. In addition to Niger, these countries are Nigeria, Ethiopia and Mali. Outside Africa, people in India, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea and Haiti have, among other things, grown up. For comparison, 33 countries had declined between 2010 and 2017, most of them in Central, Eastern and Western Europe – Georgia, Poland, Romania, Greece, Spain, Portugal – and Japan, Cuba and Puerto Rico.
In addition to population and fertility, the GBD of this year presents the results of mortality and life expectancy, causes of death and lost healthy years of life, people with disabilities, total cost of the disease, risk factors and the potential for each nationwide meeting of 41 health indicators as part of the UN Sustainable Development goals for 2030.
Analysis of UN Sustainable Development Goals
Among SDG's findings:
- Healthcare workers – doctors, nurses, midwives and pharmacists – had the highest scores in Cuba, Qatar and several European countries, while most of the lowest was in sub-Saharan Africa.
- Many Latin American nations had the worst marks in sexual intolerance in non-intimate partners, while several countries in Central Asia, Eastern Europe and South Asia had the best results.
- Most nations have a 95% chance of meeting the SDG goals for the prevalence of malaria and the Deaths of under five, New Year Mortality and Maternal Mortality.
- Most countries do not meet their goals in reducing deaths of non-communicable diseases such as diabetes or stroke or suicide.
- No nation has yet reached the SDG target for overweight children, which is less than 0.5% of children aged 2-4.
- Men are more likely to die than non-communicable diseases and smoking among other health problems.
- Male suicide rates clearly exceed women (13.8 / 100,000 compared to 4.0 / 100,000).
- It is unlikely that the goal is to eliminate HIV infections.
"HIV is still a huge threat to public health, especially because global funding has leveled up, domestic health spending has remained low among the heaviest countries, and its prevalence has not diminished as younger as in older population groups," Murray said. "The best way to accelerate the accelerated activity of HIV and other major health challenges is not very clear. In the future, annual GBD research will provide a forum for international agencies, nationwide health authorities and other stakeholders through which strategies and programs can be tested and analyzed."
The main causes of death and health risks
The study found that each of the following caused worldwide deaths of over one million in 2017: ischemic heart disease, neonates, stroke, lower respiratory tract infections, diarrhea, road injuries and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).
- The largest age-related deaths of ischemic heart disease were in Uzbekistan, Ukraine and Azerbaijan; lowest in South Korea, Japan and France.
- The highest rates for newborn babies were in the Central African Republic, Pakistan and Mal. the smallest in Singapore, Japan and Iceland.
- The highest rates of stroke were Marshall Islands, Papua New Guinea and Montenegro; the smallest in Switzerland, France and Singapore.
- The lowest prices for low respiratory infections were in the Central African Republic, Solomon Islands and Chad; lowest in Austria, Finland and Macedonia.
- The most important prices of diseases related to diarrhea were in the Central African Republic, Chad and South Sudan. the lowest in Montenegro, Belarus and Estonia.
- The highest prices for road deaths were in the Central African Republic, Somalia and the United Arab Emirates; the smallest were in Switzerland, Singapore and Sweden.
- COPD's highest prices were in Papua New Guinea, North Korea and India; the smallest in Kuwait, Iraq and Japan.
In addition, rapid growth in deaths has been the use of antibiotics or resistance to an important factor such as tuberculosis and cellulite, a common skin infection.
"A more serious consequence of increased healthcare worldwide is the dramatic increase in mortality in drug-related illnesses and disorders, especially antibiotic resistance and opioid use," Murray said.
He noted that over the last decade, opioid use disorders have increased worldwide by more than 75%, compared to 61,859 in 2007 and 109,520 in 2017.
Healthy losses of other risk factors (measured as adjusted for the years of life of disabled people or DALY values) many of the common types such as high blood pressure and smoking have changed from the smallest of the 15 best in 2007 to 2017. The biggest risks for the early 1990s are 27 years and big differences is born when the child is wasting, the birth weight is short, and the low birth weight is the first to third. These three positions are ninth, fifth and sixth, in 2017.
Other important risk factors related to categorization based on all-time DALY figures are:
- High blood pressure in 1990 ranked fifth; in 2017 it was the first
- Smoking in 1990 ranked fourth; in 2017 it was the second
- High Blood Sugar in 1990 ranked 11th; in 2017 it was the third
- The high BMI in 1990 ranked 16th; in 2017 it was the fourth
- An impor- tant water source in 1990 ranked sixth; in 2017 it was the 14th day
- Household air pollution in 1990 ranked seventh; in 2017 it was 16
- Desperate sanitation in 1990 ranked ninth; in 2017 it was the 20th
"The world has seen a number of health problems," Murray said. "Investments in poor countries with regard to birth control and water and sanitation problems have clearly made a significant difference in people's lives, while the combination of increasing metabolic rate and population aging continues to develop problems in non-communicable diseases, challenges and opportunities, and underlines the GBD study value for good policy decisions and strategic health planning planning. "
Past life and people with a healthy life expectancy
These decisions and the health planning process are also based on DALY analyzes, which are the sum of years lost years (YLL) and Years of Invalidity (YLD).
As with risk factors, the classification and percentages of categories of all ages based on the DALY class were significant in 1990 compared to 2017:
- Drug abuse disorder increased by 71%
- Diabetes increased by 117%
- Alzheimer's disease and other dementias increased by 115%
- Neck pain increased by 75%
- Age-related hearing loss increased by 80%
- Depressive disorders increased by 53%
- Tetanus decreased by 90%
- Damage is 86%
Between 2017, there were several differences between men and women in DALY classifications, including:
- Road traffic accidents were the fifth leading cause of DALY for men compared to 16-year-old women.
- Headaches are placed in 18 years for men and eighth for women.
- Lung cancer was ranked among 12-year-old men and 27-year-old women.
- The injury itself was for 16-year-old men and 31-year-old women.
The GBD study also identifies peoples with a high and low healthy life expectancy measured over the years that people can expect to live in good condition, taking into account both death and disability. In 2017 the best three countries were Singapore (74.2 years), Japan (73.1 years) and Spain (72.1 years); the smallest were the Central African Republic (44.8 years), Lesotho (47.0 years) and South Sudan (50.6 years).
"As life expectancy increases in many countries, all of us in the health policy issue are about whether extra years have been spent on good health or bad health," Murray said. "The burden of disability has serious implications for healthcare systems and healthcare costs. The most common trends in non-communicable diseases suggest that more work is needed to increase healthy life expectancy."
Nations with the highest fertility rates (on average, the number of children given by a woman during their lifetime):
Niger – 7.1; Chad – 6.7; Somalia – 6.1; Mali – 6.0; Afghanistan – 6.0; South Sudan – 5.9; Burkina Faso – 5.4; Burundi – 5.3; Uganda – 5.2; Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Angola, Nigeria (all 5.1)
Top 10 nations with the largest population:
China – 1,412,480,000; India – 1 380 560 000; United States – 324,839,000; Indonesia 258,134,000; Pakistan – 214 288 000; Brazil – 211 812 000; Nigeria – 206 087 000; Bangladesh – 156 981 000; Russia – 146,189,000; and Japan – 128, 363,000
Top 10 global health risks associated with all ages DALY (both sexes):
High blood pressure, smoking, high blood sugar, high BMI, short pregnancy birth weight, low birth weight for pregnancy, alcohol use, high cholesterol, child mortality and air pollution
The Top 10 Reasons for All-Time DALY Men for Men 2017:
Ischemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, lower respiratory tract infections, road injuries, COPD, diarrhea, diabetes, congenital congenital disorders and lower back pain
The Top 10 Reasons for Women Aging in 2017:
New babies, ischemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory tract infections, diarrheal diseases, COPD, lower back pain, headache, diabetes and congenital birth defects.
Top 10 and Base Nationes Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE):
Singapore – 74.2 years; Japan – 73.1 years; Spain – 72.1 years; Switzerland – 72.0 years; Italy – 71.9 years; France – 71.7 years; South Korea – 71.7 years; Israel – 71.4 years; Bermuda – 71.4 years; Iceland – 71.3 years
Central African Republic – 44.8 years; Lesotho – 47.0 years; South Sudan – 50.6 years; Mozambique – 50.6 years; Papua New Guinea – 50.8 years; Somalia – 51.2 years; Swaziland – 51.3 years; Chad – 51.5 years; Guinea-Bissau – 52.0 years; and in Sierra Leone – 52.1 years