the government does not want to give pessimism



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French economic growth has no fuel in the eyes of the government. Therefore, the modified 2018 budget estimate for this Wednesday is based on the assumed growth of growth this year to 1.7%, which is consistent with previous forecasts. However, according to the Supreme Council of the Economy (HCFP), this amount is "Slightly high". "1.6 percent growth is more likely", this independent committee writes in its statement on PLFR.

These "wise" have noticed the second quarter of INSEE's third quarter (+ 0.4%) published last week. However, this acceleration is not considered sufficient to fill the minilab weighed by the beginning of the year (+ 0.2% in each of the first two quarters).

This sentence does not give too much to Bercy, who remains confident in 2018 and 2019. "We will remain in line thickness between 1.6% and 1.7%, and accelerating growth over the course of the year will strengthen the acquis communautaire next year"says the Ministry of Public Accounts.

Deficit forecast is still "credible"

The government can also calm itself by saying that this pessimism of activity does not lead the HCFP to question the fiscal deficit of 2018 (2.6%), which has always been estimated

"Persuasive"
. The state budget situation is even better than expected, with a deficit of EUR 80 billion, due to a 2.35% sale of Safran's capital in October (EUR 1.24 billion).

Growth: the government does not want to give pessimism

Despite the airspace in the beginning of the year, tax revenue was revised slightly upwards (+400 million), although HCFP estimates that VAT revenue may not be at the venue.

On the expenditure side, changes are also minor, and the government has sought to limit credit losses (a total of EUR 2.7 billion) and borrowing (EUR 2.1 billion) during the year. The previous Ministry of Defense has spent about 400 million less. In the case of the openings, the Solidarity and Insertions operation will benefit from an extension of EUR 261 million in order to cope with the more extensive activity-based recourse than expected.

"Accounting Unbundling"

Finally, this gives a relatively small collective budget compared to previous years. The situation presented by the government, which sees it as a result "The sincerity of the accounts made from the beginning of the five-year period". "For the first time in twenty years there has not been a prior regulation on appropriations during the year", tells Bercie, where he is satisfied "This PLFR does not show Finance Bill bis as before". Thus, there is no taxation in the text.

The "light" budget collection does not imply a silent scrutiny in Parliament. Consequently, all members of the various parties left the House of the State Committee during the review of the PLFR held Wednesday. MEPs wanted to oppose the text they have just sent, which leaves them a little bit of time to change it.

Renaud Honoré

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