Tuesday , April 20 2021

Promising forecasts for Algeria in 2019



In a report in Dubai yesterday's global economic outlook, nominal GDP in Algeria should for the first time reach $ 200 billion in 2019 to reach $ 200.2 billion. The Bretton Woods Institute is also expected to grow slightly in nominal GDP in Algeria in 2018 to 2017. The latter is expected to reach 188.3 billion (2018) by 2018 compared to 167.6 billion in 2017, which will increase with the growth of public spending, which will increase growth this year and next year. The Fund has maintained its GDP projected in October at 2.5% in 2018, compared with 1.4% in 2017 and 2.7% in 2019, and notes that "growth in public spending should contribute to growth this year.
But "predicted tax competition in the coming years is likely to lead to a slowdown than oil growth in the medium term," says the lender as the last resort. The International Monetary Fund recalls that Algeria has "increased its spending on reviving economic activity and confidentially on monetary financing" and stressed that "fiscal consolidation is expected to come from 2019". "Algerian budget deficit liquidation has led to significant liquidity injections that added credit to the private sector and the public sector in 2017," the report said.
In this respect, the Fund notes that the ratio of private investment in Algeria to the oil exporting countries in the Algerian region averaged 14% to 22%. The IMF report focused on improving the business climate, including the adoption of new laws to support small and medium-sized enterprises. At the same time, the financial financing of the economy did not have an inflation rate. The International Monetary Fund has maintained its October forecast for inflation to 6.5% in 2018 and 6.7% in 2019, which has fallen from last year's forecasts in April. Like Algeria's other oil exporting countries, Algeria is forecast to improve its external and fiscal balances, in particular due to the recovery of crude oil prices.
The rise in oil prices "will provide temporary support" to the oil exporting states in the region, which must, however, aim to reform and adjust fiscal consolidation to strengthen long-term flexibility, the IMF notes in its report. This will increase exports by 2018 to $ 46.2 billion in 2017 to $ 37.6 billion. The current account deficit is -16.9 billion dollars this year against -22.1 billion dollars in 2017. In 2019 this deficit will continue to fall from $ 1 billion to $ 15.9 billion. The current account deficit will be -9% of GDP in 2018 compared with -13.2% in 2017 and is expected to fall to -7.9% of GDP in 2019 from the same data.
The IMF predicts that the Algerian budget will be in balance with the 2018 $ 105.1 and 201.6 in 2019. However, due to the external balance, it needs a much cheaper $ 80.3 in 2018 and $ 78.9 in 2019, according to the IMF .


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