Monday , April 12 2021

The IEA predicts oil surplus on the world market in 2019

Oil supply in world markets will accelerate demand throughout 2019 as production grows and consumption is in jeopardy of economic slowdown, Reuters reported. In the oil market's monthly report, the IEA forecasts for global demand growth in 2018 and 2019, compared to the previous month by 1.3 million and 1.4 million barrels a day (b / s). At the same time, the agency lowered its forecast for growth in demand outside the OECD, including

"In the first half of 2019, based on a projection of OPEC production and global demand and provided that OPEC's current production volumes remain unchanged … the expected growth of stocks is 2 million b / s," the agency said.

"Although slower economic growth in some countries weakens oil demand prospects, a significant downward revision of our forecast is a positive factor," IEA said.

The agency's forecast for growth in oil production for non-OPEC countries this year was 2.4 million b / d and next year 1.9 million b / d compared to 1.8 million bps earlier 2.2 million bps.

According to the IEA estimates, total production in this country will increase by 2.1 million b / d in 2018 and 1.3 million bp in 2019 compared to the current record. high output of more than 11 million b / s.

OPEC's oil production according to the IEA in October increased from 200 thousand b / d to 32.99 million b / d. The decline in production in Iran and Venezuela compensates for the increase in production in other countries such as Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. "Next year, OPEC's oil demand is expected to be even lower, as OPEC's deliveries have been growing steadily," the agency says.

The IEA forecasted its forecast for OPEC's oil demand in 2019 to 300,000 b / d to 31.3 million b / d. Oil reserves in the OECD countries increased by 12.1 million barrels in September to 2.875 billion barrels. Generally, during the third quarter stocks grew by 58.1 million barrels, or 630 thousand b / d. This is the largest growth since 2015.

"Storage tanks are filled because global supply of oil is far ahead of demand, which indicates a possible decline in production by OPEC / non-OPEC by one million b / s," the agency said.

In the past, OPEC warned that overcapacity in the oil market in 2019 may increase as global economic growth slows down and deliveries from competing producers grow faster than expected.

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